Fall of the Assad regime

Assad’s Fall: A Turning Point in Syria

On December 8, 2024, a significant event shook the political landscape of Syria as the Assad regime collapsed during an offensive by opposition forces led by Tahrir al-Sham and supported by the Syrian National Army. Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus aboard a plane to Russia, where he joined his family in exile and was granted asylum. This moment marked not just the end of one era but the beginning of another, with far-reaching implications for Syria’s future.

The Assad Regime’s Longevity

How did a regime that had ruled Syria since 1971 manage to hold on for so long? The al-Assad family built a cult of personality around Hafez al-Assad, who became president under the Syrian Ba’ath Party. He promoted the armed forces as a central aspect of public life and created a system where loyalty was rewarded with economic benefits. After his death in 2000, Bashar al-Assad inherited this legacy but faced increasing criticism for his role in the brutal crackdown on Arab Spring protesters.

The Syrian Civil War

Why did the civil war begin in 2011 and how did it affect Syria? The conflict began when peaceful protests against Assad’s regime were met with violent repression. As the situation escalated, international condemnation led to calls for Assad’s resignation. By 2022, the war had claimed around 580,000 lives, with pro-Assad forces responsible for over 90% of civilian deaths.

The Final Days

How did opposition forces secure control of Damascus? On December 7, 2024, opposition forces secured complete control of Homs following a concentrated military engagement. This move allowed them to capture critical transportation infrastructure and surrounding areas. By the next day, Assad-allied Hezbollah forces withdrew from nearby al-Qusayr, evacuating hundreds of fighters.

Assad’s Departure

Why did Bashar al-Assad flee Damascus? On December 8, 2024, opposition forces entered Damascus with minimal resistance. Assad and his family fled to Russia, where the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed his resignation and departure from Syria. The Syrian Arab Army Command announced its dissolution as rebel forces took control over local TV stations.

International Reactions

How did the international community respond to Assad’s fall? Countries like Afghanistan, Algeria, Austria, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Palestine, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States all had their own reactions. The US President Joe Biden claimed credit for Assad’s overthrow due to international sanctions and American military presence.

Analysis of the Collapse

What factors contributed to Assad’s downfall? Senior fellow Natasha Hall attributed Syria’s collapse to weakened allies and economic conditions. Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst, noted that it would be challenging for the Syrian opposition to decide on a new governing system due to rebel diversity. Russian analysts blamed Assad for losing the war due to failing to unite troops and achieve national reconciliation.

Sanctions, loss of control over oil resources, and ineffectiveness of the Syrian army also played significant roles in Assad’s downfall. The fall of the Assad regime marked a turning point that could reshape Syria’s future, with international support and cooperation essential for stability and peace.

The fall of the Assad regime is a complex and multifaceted event that has profound implications for Syria’s future. As the international community grapples with the aftermath, it remains to be seen how this transition will unfold and what kind of new governance structure will emerge. The road ahead is fraught with challenges but also offers hope for a more peaceful and stable Syria.