FiveThirtyEight is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. On the eve of the 2016 election, the site’s forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.
About FiveThirtyEight in brief
FiveThirtyEight is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. On the eve of the 2016 election, the site’s forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance. In 2018, the operations were transferred from ESPN to sister property ABC News. The website was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. In July 2013, ESPN acquired FiveThirty eight, hiring Silver as editor-in-chief and a contributor for ESPN. com; the new publication launched on March 17, 2014. While under the ownership of ESPN in 2016, fiveThirtyEight won the Data Journalism Website of the Year award from the Global Editors Network. The blog has covered a broad spectrum of subjects including politics, sports, science, economics and popular culture. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports had 3 million unique visitors per week while averaging approximately 400,000 per week. By early October 2008, FiveThirtyeight approached 2.5 million visitors a week. During October 2008 the site received 63,000 unique visits per week, with 57 million unique visits by early October. The New Republic, a blog published by The New. Republic, published a column on health care reform, global warming legislation and LGBT rights; elections around the world; marijuana legalization; and numerous other topics.
In May 2008, The NewRepublic published a blog on the prospects for turnover in the Senate; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care Reform; and public support of the Affordable Care Act. On May 30, 2008,. Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyThirtyEight readers. He published under the name Poblano, the same name that he had used since November 2007 when he began publishing a diary on the political blog Daily Kos. He had gained a following, especially for his primary election forecast on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008. From that primary election day, which included contests in 24 states plus American Samoa, he predicted that Barack Obama would come away with 859 delegates, and Hillary Clinton 829; in the final contests, Obama won 847 delegates and Clinton 834. Silver relied on demographic data and on the history of voting in other states during the 2008 Democratic primary elections. He used a unique methodology derived from Silver’s experience in sabermetrics to \”balance out the polls with comparative demographic data\”. Silver weighted each poll based on the pollster’s historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll; After that date, he published just four more diaries on Daily Kos on the primary season. As too, too, he began to build a model for the general election.
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