Kessler syndrome

Kessler syndrome is a theoretical scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit due to space pollution is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade. One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges difficult for many generations. It became widely used after its appearance in a 1982 popular Science article.

About Kessler syndrome in brief

Kessler syndrome is a theoretical scenario in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit due to space pollution is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade. One implication is that the distribution of debris in orbit could render space activities and the use of satellites in specific orbital ranges difficult for many generations. After the launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957, the North American Aerospace Defense Command began compiling a database of all known rocket launches and objects reaching orbit. In 1978, Kessler found that 42 percent of cataloged debris was the result of 19 events, primarily of spent rocket explosions. In 1979, NASA established the Orbital Debris Program to deal with the problem. In 1986, the European Space Agency expanded its program to include international agencies. A number of Delta 2 components in orbit had not yet been depleting the unused fuel from the upper stage Delta rocket following the payload injection following the launch. The list could not easily account for objects under 20 cm in size, in particular, debris from exploding rocket stages and several 1960s anti-satellite tests. Returned spacecraft were microscopically examined for small impacts, and sections of Skylab and the Apollo CommandService Module which were recovered were found to be pitted.

During a senior management briefing, NASA senior management overturned the belief that most unknown debris was not from old ASAT tests, not from US upper stage rocket explosions that could seemingly be easily managed by depleting fuel from the payload following the injection of the payload. In a 1982 Popular Science article, which won the Aviation-Space Writers Association 1982 National Journalism Award, Kessler coined the term Kessler syndrome to refer to the accumulation of debris. He concluded that by about 2000, space debris would outpace micrometeoroids as the primary ablative risk to orbiting spacecraft. The lack of hard data about space debris prompted a series of studies to better characterize the LEO environment. The study indicated that the debris flux was higher than expected and debris is the primary source of micrometeeoroids and orbital debris collisions in space. In the 1980s, NASA provided Kessler with funding for further studies, and these measurements demonstrated that the published population count was at least 50% too low. In an interview shortly after the publication of Kessler’s paper, Gabbard coined the name Kessler syndrome for the phenomenon. It became widely used after its appearance in a 1982 popular Science article.

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