Bellwether
The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram leading the flock of sheep. In politics, the term more often applies in a metaphorical sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale.
About Bellwether in brief
The term derives from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram leading the flock of sheep. In the stock market, a bellwether is a stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, an industry or the market as a whole. In politics, the term more often applies in a metaphorical sense to describe a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area. The result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can mirror in its popular vote the result on a national scale. In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the state of Minas Gerais is where the winning candidate took the lead in the last-round election from 1955 to 2018. In Canada, Sarnia-Lambton voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. In Alberta, Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905. In France, five departments have always voted the chosen candidate in the second round: Ardèche, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire and.
No region has done so in the first round. In Germany, Schleswig-Holstein has matched the party of the Chancellor the most times since 1949. Both Lower Saxony’s and Lower Saxon’s election is often seen as a run-off for the subsequent federal election. Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities nor large Catholic populations, resulting in a narrow result in a former majority for the coalition. In Australia, until the 2016 federal election, the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bell wether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwther record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. The state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a \”bellwether\”, as, until 2016, the majority party won the most seats in the state. The division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party that won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016.
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This page is based on the article Bellwether published in Wikipedia (as of Dec. 06, 2020) and was automatically summarized using artificial intelligence.
