2024 Syrian opposition offensives

November 27, 2024: A Turning Point in Syria

The stage was set on November 27, 2024, as a coalition of Syrian opposition groups led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive against pro-government forces. This operation, codenamed Deterrence of Aggression, marked the beginning of a series of events that would reshape the landscape of Syria.

Idlib and Beyond

The HTS and allied Turkish-backed groups in the Syrian National Army (SNA) targeted pro-government forces amid increased SAA shelling. By December 6, opposition forces had captured Deir ez-Zor and advanced towards Hama. The US-backed Syrian Free Army (SFA) took control of Palmyra, while Southern Operations Room and Al-Jabal Brigade captured Daraa and Suwayda.

Approaching Damascus

On December 7, Southern Front forces entered the Rif Dimashq Governorate from the south, coming within 10 kilometers of the capital Damascus. Rebels later entered the suburbs of the capital, and SFA forces moved towards it from the southeast.

The Fall of Homs

By December 8, rebels captured Homs, cutting off Assad’s forces from Syria’s coast, and eventually toppled Bashar al-Assad’s government. This marked the end of the Assad family’s 53-year-long rule over the country. On November 28, HTS launched an offensive in eastern Idlib countryside, capturing several villages and a neighborhood in Saraqib.

Continued Hostilities

HTS also attacked al-Nayrab’s airport and captured more villages in Aleppo countryside. A Russian airstrike killed 15 civilians in Atarib. Iranian state media reported the death of Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi by rebels. An SDF fighter was killed by a Turkish drone strike in Raqqah Governorate.

December 29: More Advances

On December 29, HTS captured several more villages and strong fighting continued around Saraqib. Four civilians were killed and two others injured by HTS shelling in Aleppo city. The SDF attacked near Al-Bab, killing 15 fighters. Seven SNA fighters died in a Russian airstrike on their military headquarters.

Clashes and Evolutions

Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib. On December 29, opposition forces launched an offensive in Aleppo Governorate. Rebels entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city. HTS-led forces captured five city districts, reaching the main square and parts of four other districts.

Idlib and Hama

In Idlib and Aleppo governorates, rebels captured 50 towns and villages. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, except for Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. On December 30, rebel forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo and more than half of the city.

Further Advances

The SDF entered the towns of Dayr Hafir, Tell Aran, Tell Hasel, and the Shaykh Najjar district of Aleppo city. The SDF captured Aleppo International Airport and several surrounding towns. Pro-government forces retreated from Aleppo governorate leaving behind military equipment including tanks and air defense systems.

December 1: More Turmoil

On December 1, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army launched an offensive on SDF-held town of Tell Rifaat capturing it along with surrounding villages. Russia launched airstrikes targeting rebels and civilians. The SDF announced plans to evacuate Kurdish IDPs from Tel Rifaat.

Hama Governorate

Clashes intensified in Hama Governorate on December 2, with opposition forces making advances. Anas Alkharboutli, a photographer for DPA, was killed in an airstrike in Morek, near Hama. Opposition forces took control of several villages and cities, including Khitab, Mubarakat, Jabal Zayn al-Abidin, Hama city, Salamiyah, Talbiseh, Al-Rastan, and parts of Deir ez-Zor Governorate and Daraa.

Hezbollah’s Role

Hezbollah sent fighters to support government forces in Hama and Homs. Pro-government forces withdrew from Homs towards the city of Latakia and Damascus, with only local pro-government gunmen remaining in Shia majority neighborhoods. Iran began withdrawing its personnel from Syria, pulling out top commanders and evacuating at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.

December 7: Final Push

Syrian forces withdrew from Homs, cutting off Assad’s forces from Syria’s west coast. Southern Front forces captured Suwayda, Deir ez-Zor, and Palmyra. Opposition forces entered Daraa, and rebels took control of Palmyra. Pro-government forces withdrew from Quneitra Governorate and the outskirts of Damascus.

Repercussions

Rebel forces reached the suburbs of Damascus in early December 2024. The Syrian Arab Army described the offensive as a ‘huge and large-scale terrorist attack’ targeting villages and military sites. The government blamed Turkey for supporting insurgents’ push into Aleppo and Idlib provinces.

International Reactions

The EU congratulated the rebels, while condemning the offensive as a ‘plot’ by Iran. Russia blamed Ukraine for involvement and called it a violation of Syria’s sovereignty. Turkey demanded an end to airstrikes on Idlib and criticized Assad for refusing negotiations. The US stated it had nothing to do with the offensive, while Ukraine denied supporting rebels and accused Russia and Iran of destabilizing Syria.

Joint Efforts

Russia conducted joint airstrikes against rebels with the Syrian Arab Army. Hezbollah pledged support for the Syrian government against this aggression. Starting December 2, Russian warships began leaving the Tartus naval base.

The Aftermath

Iran said it ‘firmly’ supported the Syrian government. Iranian General Javad Ghafari arrived in Syria on December 5 to help the Syrian government. By December 7, Iran had withdrawn some military and diplomatic personnel from Syria. Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons depots and bombed Syrian government weapons depots believed to contain chemical weapons.

Regional Dynamics

Turkey denied approving the HTS-led offensive in advance but tacitly blamed Russia and Iran for the downfall of the Assad regime. Turkish-backed fighters captured the city of Manbij. Ukraine provided training and equipment to the Syrian opposition and dispatched advisors to coordinate the offensive.

Conclusion

The fall of the Assad government in December 2024 marked a significant shift, not just for Syria but also for global geopolitics. As Russia and Iran grapple with their diminished influence, the question remains: What does this mean for the future of Syria? The answer lies in the complex interplay of regional powers and the resilience of rebel groups.