2024 Syrian opposition offensives

HTS Offensive: A Turning Point in Syrian Conflict

On November 27, 2024, HTS and Turkish-backed groups launched a significant offensive in Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama Governorates. This operation, codenamed ‘Deterrence of Aggression,’ marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing Syrian conflict.

The offensive began with a swift advance by HTS, capturing 20 towns and villages within the first ten hours. They also besieged a government forces base, which they later took control of. The intensity of this initial push left many questioning how long it would take for opposition forces to gain momentum.

Opposition Forces Make Rapid Gains

By December 1, HTS had captured most of Aleppo, and by the 5th, they had taken control of Hama. The SDF managed to capture Deir ez-Zor, while the US-backed Syrian Free Army (SFA) took Palmyra.

The rapid advances made by these groups raised concerns about the stability of the region. Could this be the beginning of a new chapter in Syria’s long-standing conflict?

HTS Advances Southward

HTS advanced south to Homs, with SFA forces entering the Rif Dimashq Governorate from the southeast.

By December 8, HTS had captured Homs and entered Damascus suburbs. The rebels, including SFA forces, even managed to capture the capital, toppling Bashar al-Assad’s government after a 53-year rule. This dramatic turn of events left many wondering about the future of Syria.

Government Forces’ Retreat

The Syrian government had been in control for decades, but now faced significant challenges. Since March 2020, large-scale operations between opposition and pro-government forces had ceased in Northwestern Syria. HTS’s offensive was a clear indication that the balance of power was shifting.

HTS announced their ‘Deterrence of Aggression’ offensive on November 27, responding to artillery shelling by the Syrian government against rebel-held Idlib. The first ten hours saw them capture several towns and villages in northern Syria, including Dadikh, Kafr Batikh, and Sheikh Ali.

Government’s Response

The Syrian government suffered from corruption, which weakened their ability to respond effectively to the offensive. HTS aimed to disrupt regional powers’ diplomatic normalization with the Assad regime by launching this operation.

During the first ten hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces in northern Syria. They also besieged a government forces base, which they later took control of after a few hours. The Syrian Observatory reported 37 killed fighters among both sides, while Russian special forces suffered an ambush and were later attacked by rebels.

Opposition’s Strategic Moves

HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing several villages including Dadikh, Kafr Batikh, and Sheikh Ali. They also attacked al-Nayrab’s airport east of Aleppo, capturing nearby villages.

Russian airstrikes killed civilians in Atarib and Darat Izza, while Iranian state media reported a rebel killing of IRGC Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi. A Turkish drone strike killed an SDF fighter in Raqqah Governorate. On November 29, HTS captured several more villages in Idlib and Aleppo countryside.

Rebel Forces Capture Key Locations

Opposition forces launched a large-scale offensive in Aleppo Governorate aimed at capturing the city of Aleppo and surrounding areas. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah, and Khanaser road.

An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city. Rebel forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, government headquarters, and ‘more than half of Aleppo city.’ The Kurdish majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) entered towns Dayr Hafir, Tell Aran, Tell Hasel, and Shaykh Najjar district, taking over from pro-government forces.

Government’s Withdrawal

The government withdrawal was significant. They left military equipment behind during their retreat from Aleppo governorate. HTS-led opposition took control of Aleppo airport after local SDF troops withdrew. The Syrian National Army (SNA) captured towns as-Safirah, Khanasir, and Kuweires airbase.

Concurrently, HTS captured thermal power plant, field artillery college, and military academy on the outskirts of Aleppo. On December 1, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army launched an offensive on Tell Rifaat, capturing the town along with several surrounding villages.

Hama Governorate: A Critical Front

HTS-led opposition forces rapidly advanced in Hama Governorate, capturing dozens of towns and villages by evening of November 30. Russia launched airstrikes on opposition-held territory, including Idlib city, which killed civilians.

On December 3, opposition forces captured more than 10 towns and villages near Hama, including Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, Soran, and Maardis. Pro-government forces briefly counterattacked and retook the villages of Kafr’a and Maar Shuhur, while opposition advanced to Ghab Plain.

Assad’s Fleeing

Anas Alkharboutli, a photographer working for DPA, was killed in an airstrike in Morek amidst clashes near Hama. By the evening, opposition forces had cut off roads connecting Hama to Raqqa and Aleppo, capturing villages and towns including Khitab, Mubarakat, and Jabal Zayn al-Abidin.

On December 5, HTS-led rebels took control of Hama city as pro-government forces withdrew. On the same day, Hezbollah announced it was sending fighters towards Hama and Homs to support government forces. Pro-government forces withdrew from Salamiyah and Talbiseh hours after their withdrawal from Hama. Opposition forces entered Salamiyah without fighting, then reached the outskirts of Al-Rastan and captured a pro-government military base.

Final Push Towards Damascus

On December 6, opposition forces captured five towns in Homs Governorate and approached the outskirts of the city as pro-government forces withdrew. Iranian personnel began withdrawing from Syria, pulling out top commanders and evacuating bases. Syrian forces withdrew from Homs on December 7/8, effectively cutting off Assad’s forces from Syria’s west coast.

In the evening of December 6, local forces captured Suwayda, while SDF captured Deir ez-Zor province from pro-government forces. On December 6, opposition forces captured Daraa city and 90% of its province as pro-government forces withdrew towards Damascus. The Syrian Free Army took control of Palmyra in central Homs Governorate.

Pro-Government Forces’ Retreat

On December 7, pro-government forces withdrew from the Quneitra Governorate, which borders the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Opposition forces entered the Rif Dimashq Governorate from the south and came within 20 kilometres of Damascus.

Pro-government forces left their towns on the outskirts of Damascus, including Jaramana, Qatana, Muadamiyat al-Sham, Darayya, Al-Kiswah, Al-Dumayr, and sites near the Mezzeh Air Base. On December 7, President Assad fled Damascus, making a stopover at the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base before proceeding to Moscow where he was given asylum by the Russian government.

Conclusion

The collapse of the Assad regime has significant implications for Russia and Iran, undermining their ability to support allies in Latin America and Africa. The African Corps’ inability to make a difference due to being overstretched further highlights the complexity of this conflict. As Syria continues to grapple with its new reality, the world watches closely to see how these changes will unfold.