Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting: A journey from ancient observations to modern technology

Imagine trying to predict the weather without any advanced tools or knowledge. That’s what people did for millennia, relying on simple patterns and signs in nature. But as time progressed, humanity began to harness science and technology to make more accurate predictions. The quest for understanding the atmosphere has led us from ancient methods to today’s sophisticated models.

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict atmospheric conditions for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century.

The Evolution of Weather Forecasting

From the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835, which allowed faster transmission of weather reports, to the establishment of the first gale warning service in 1861, the journey has been nothing short of remarkable. Francis Beaufort and Robert FitzRoy are credited with developing forecasting as a science. Beaufort developed the Wind Force Scale and Weather Notation coding, while FitzRoy established a department within the Board of Trade to collect weather data at sea.

Numerical Prediction: A Leap Forward

The 20th century saw significant advancements with the advent of numerical prediction. Lewis Fry Richardson published “Weather Prediction By Numerical Process” in 1922, describing a finite differencing scheme for numerical prediction. The first computerized weather forecast was performed by a team in 1955 using programmable electronic computers.

Modern Tools and Techniques

Today, weather satellites provide global coverage but with lower accuracy and resolution. Meteorological radar provides information on precipitation location and intensity, while wind speed and direction can be estimated using pulse Doppler radar. There is an in-situ observational gap in the lower atmosphere (100m to 6km above ground level), but research has been growing since the 2010s, with weather drones being considered for filling this gap.

Artificial Intelligence and Weather Forecasting

The use of artificial intelligence began in the 2010s. Models such as Huawei’s Pangu-Weather model, Google’s GraphCast, and Nvidia’s FourCastNet have shown promise. AIFS published real-time forecasts in 2024 showing skill at predicting hurricane tracks but lower performance on intensity changes.

Communicating Forecasts to the Public

Accurate weather forecasting is crucial for protecting life and property. Government agencies provide forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories through various outlets including newspaper, television, radio, and the internet. Severe weather alerts and advisories are issued to protect life and property.

Specialist Forecasting Services

Air traffic: Accurate weather forecasting is essential to prevent aircraft from landing and taking off, as well as to mitigate turbulence, icing, thunderstorms, volcanic ash, and other hazards. Marine: Weather forecasts help determine the safety of marine transit by considering wind direction, speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation.

Impact on Various Sectors

Agriculture: Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. Forestry: Wind, precipitation, and humidity forecasting is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires. Utility companies: Weather forecasts help determine electricity and gas demand by estimating heating degree days and cooling degree days based on daily average temperatures.

Conclusion

The journey of weather forecasting from ancient observations to modern technology has been a fascinating one, filled with innovation and adaptation. As we continue to refine our models and integrate new technologies, the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts will only improve, ensuring better preparedness for whatever Mother Nature throws at us.

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Numerical weather prediction National Weather Service Tornado warning Surface weather analysis